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Methodology for computer aided fuzzy fault tree analysis

机译:计算机辅助模糊故障树分析的方法

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摘要

Process facilities are well known for unplanned chemical emission, toxic release, fire and explosion and operational disruption. These incidents have the potential to cause an industrial accident and environmental damage. From the investigation of all major accidents, it is apparent that most industrial accidents can be avoided or restricted with a systematic risk analysis and safety management strategy. An effective risk analysis strategy always gives preference to minimizing the risk of a process facility at its design stages. -- Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured and logical method for identifying and assessing risks of complex process systems. It uses fault tree analysis (FTA) as a tool to identify basic causes leading to an undesired event, to represent logical dependency of these basic causes in leading to the event, and finally to calculate the probability of occurrence of this event. Probability data estimation, and large and complex fault trees, are challenging aspects of FTA as applied to process facilities. -- Quantitative analysis of a fault tree for a process system requires a fault tree and the system components (basic events) failure data. Sometimes or always it is difficult to have an exact estimation of the failure rate of individual components or the probability of occurrence of undesired events due to a lack of sufficient data. Further, due to imprecision in basic failure data or the data sufficiency the overall analysis of a fault tree may be questionable. To avoid such conditions, a fuzzy approach may be used with the FTA technique. This reduces the ambiguity and imprecision arising out of the subjectivity of the data. -- Fault tree construction for a process facility must accommodate for a wide variation in components, process operations and control mechanisms. It is more scientific to analyze such a large and complex fault tree through proper sub-divisions of the tree. A proper modularization technique (sub-division) can sub divide a tree into its equivalent sub trees and then analyze it for the process facility. -- This work is focused on developing a methodology of a fuzzy based computer-aided fault tree analysis tool. The central idea of this methodology is to adopt a suitable algorithm for moduling (sub-dividing) a large and complex fault tree and then evaluate it by using the fuzzy approach. This methodology uses a systematic approach of fault tree development, fault tree modularization, minimal cut sets determination, fuzzy probability analysis, and fuzzy based sensitivity analysis of a system for achieving its objectives. Besides developing a methodology for computer- aided FTA, this study also proposes a procedure of fuzzy approach for the uncertainty analysis, which is used for comparing error robustness of fuzzy FTA and conventional FTA.
机译:工艺设施因计划外的化学物质排放,有毒物质释放,火灾和爆炸以及操作中断而闻名。这些事件有可能导致工业事故和环境破坏。通过对所有重大事故的调查,很明显,可以通过系统的风险分析和安全管理策略来避免或限制大多数工业事故。有效的风险分析策略始终优先考虑在设计阶段将过程设施的风险降至最低。 -概率风险评估(PRA)是一种用于识别和评估复杂过程系统风险的综合,结构化和逻辑方法。它使用故障树分析(FTA)作为工具来识别导致不良事件的根本原因,代表导致这些事件的这些根本原因的逻辑依赖性,并最终计算出该事件发生的可能性。概率数据估计以及庞大而复杂的故障树,对于应用于过程设施的FTA都是具有挑战性的方面。 -对过程系统的故障树进行定量分析需要故障树和系统组件(基本事件)故障数据。有时或总是很难对单个组件的故障率或由于缺少足够的数据而导致发生不希望的事件的可能性进行准确的估计。此外,由于基本故障数据的不精确性或数据的充分性,故障树的整体分析可能会令人怀疑。为了避免这种情况,可以将模糊方法与FTA技术一起使用。这减少了由于数据的主观性引起的歧义和不精确性。 -过程设备的故障树构造必须适应组件,过程操作和控制机制的广泛变化。通过对故障树进行适当的细分来分析如此大而复杂的故障树,这是更加科学的方法。适当的模块化技术(细分)可以将树细分为等效的子树,然后对其进行分析以用于过程设施。 -这项工作专注于开发基于模糊的计算机辅助故障树分析工具的方法。该方法的中心思想是采用一种合适的算法来调制(细分)大型复杂故障树,然后使用模糊方法对其进行评估。该方法使用故障树开发,故障树模块化,最小割集确定,模糊概率分析和基于模糊的系统敏感性分析等系统方法来实现其目标。除了开发一种用于计算机辅助FTA的方法外,本研究还提出了一种用于不确定性分析的模糊方法程序,该程序用于比较模糊FTA和常规FTA的误差鲁棒性。

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